Flip Congress

Congressional Seat Analysis

Congressional Seat Analysis

District –? CPVI –? Winner in 2016 –?
Comments Margin in 2016 Raw Votes Flip or Defend?
Florida 18 R+3 Brian Mast

Patrick Murphy was the incumbent before he decided to

run for Florida Senate, and
lost to Marco Rubio.   This left this
district available for Republicans, and they took advantage.  It is a toss up to slightly Republican
district.  We need to see if Murphy
will run again.  Murphy is not a
favorite of Progressives — but, if he runs, we can flip this for sure.  If Murphy does not run, we need to focus
energy here to win.  But, it is worth
targeting.  Challenge: Trump won the
district 53 – 44; Obama also lost here, but by less than Hillary.
53 – 44   Flip
York 3
EVEN Thomas Suozzi
seat has to be defended.

It went for
Hillary 52-46, and for Obama by similar margins. But, it is a close race.
53 – 46   Defend
Arizona 1 R+4 Tom O’Halleran This
district has more native Americans

than any other district in the US,
according to Wikipedia.  It is
generally considered a swing district, although the Democrats here are not
necessarily progressives.  It is ALWAYS
competitive, and both parties will fight tooth and nail.  We must defend.  Tom’s opponent, Paul Babeu, was a slightly
crazy law enforcement type.  This
should be defended vigorously.
51 – 44   Defend
California 24 D+4 Salud Carbajal This
district is fairly predictably voting Democratic after redistricting in the
last census.  This seat should be safe.
53 – 46    
California 52 D+2 Scott Peters Historically
Republican district is swinging more Democratic recently.  Northern San Diego area.  Went from the horrible Duncan Hunter family
to Scott Peters.  This seat MUST be
57 – 44    
Florida 2 R+18 Neal Dunn Went
for Trump by 36 %.  There is no
hope.  Not sure what this is doing on
this list of close races.  It is in
Florida pan handle, which is serious Republican territory.
California 7 EVEN Ami Bera This
district went for Clinton, and before that Obama.  But, Ami Bera is relatively new and has
managed to win a close race — too close to call until a week after election
day!!  This seat should be
defended.  His Republican opponent
Scott Jones is a sheriff, and well known in local circles.  So, Ami needs to get his act together, and
we have to help.
51 – 49   Defend
York 25
D+7 Louise Slaughter This
should not be on this list.  Solidly
Cinton and Obama district.  It has been
trending Democratic, and Louise has been there for 3 terms.  
56 – 44    
Maryland 6 D+4 John K. Delaney This
was a big Clinton district 56 – 39. 
Delaney won by 16 points.  We
are good on this one.
56 – 40    
Nebraska 2 R+4 Don Bacon Went
for Trump by just 2 percent in 2016. 
Borderline district that includes Omaha.  If 2018 becomes a wave, this is DEFINITELY
flippable.  Democratic candidate Brad
Ashford was the incumbent, and lost the race to Don Bacon by just over 1
49 – 48 4500 votes!! Flip
Minnesota 8 D+1 Rick Nolan An
ex farmer who’s been there a couple of terms, Rick Nolan seems to be a good
candidate to defend.  Danger is that
this district went for Trump by 16 points. 
They also went for Obama narrowly in 2012.  So, this is a seat we could lose, and must
be defended.
Maine 2 D+2 Bruce Poliquin This
district went for Trump by 10 points, but also for Obama by 8 points.  Bruce won because the prior 2 incumbents
decided to run for Governor.  This seat
can be flipped — but the Democrats need to run a good candidate that is
known and connects to the people.  
55 – 45   Flip
Nevada 4 D+4 Ruben Kihuen Clinton
district by about 5 points.  Should be
easy to defend, but Ruben won a narrow 4 point victory — pretty much right
at the party registration difference. 
Also the 2 last incumbents LOST re-election in this district — which
is anomalous.  90% of the reps win
re-election easily.  So, this is a
district to watch and defend.
49 – 45   Defend
Texas 23 R+3 Will Hurd Currently
held by Republican Will Hurd. 
Re-election is in jeopardy because he votes on reckless house
Republican policies.  Not concerned
with South West Texan constituents. 
So, he has become vulnerable. 
Some challenges because this is a Republican district.  2016 Trump numbers??
48.3 — 47   Flip
Arizona 2 R+3 Martha McSally Two
consecutive terms; lost her initial bid; handily beat dem on 2 slot ticket at
56.96% to 43.04% in 2016;  Votes party
line 95%+ of the time; does not share her views;  district 2 boundaries have been redrawn 2xs
after culled from dist 8, the Udalls historical dist.; held 10 yrs by (R)
Frank Trents; then lost to 1 term dem, Ron Barber, who then lost to
57 – 43   Flip??
Utah 4 R+16 Mia Love Two
consecutive terms; district created by 2012 from reapportionments. Love was
described as a Tea Party conservative in 2012.  Per Washington Post 2015 article,
"Love’s rhetoric from 2012 to 2014 changed a bit, even as her policy
positions remained fairly constant" and noted that Love had
"angered some conservatives when she questioned the tea party driven
government shutdown in 2013 over Obamacare." A blogger for
libertarian-leaning magazine Reason described her as a "Trojan horse
54 – 43   Flip??
Alaska at-large R+12 Don Young 23
consecutive terms; the sole congressional district for the state of Alaska;
longest serving member of Congress; 83 yrs of age; dem candidates split the
ticket with independents and libertarians; last 2 elections dems pulling
votes in 41 and 36 percentile; co-author to Bridge to Nowhere;  listed as the third-worst congressman by
magazine Rolling Stone, and dubbed "Mr. Pork" 
50 – 36 – 10 – 3 
(Libertarians and Constitution parties)
Iowa 1 D+5 Rod Blum 2nd
term;  2016 beat Monica Vernon by 7.6%
pts to  win at 53.7%; beat dem
candidate Pat Murphy by 2.48% pts to win at 51.1%;  his win % is increasing as dems decrease,
but not by huge % pts.; dem Braley held seat for 4 consecutive terms, then
lost senate bid to Joni Ernst and then lost his bid for house reelection in
this dist;  (Trump won this district by
3 points; and lot of turnover in this distrct — if Bruce Braley joins this
race instead of running for senate, good chance of a flip)
53.7 – 46.1   Flip
Illinois 10 D+8 Brad Schneider 2
non-consecutive terms; He defeated Dold 53%-48% with a difference of 14,900
votes; seems to alternate dem and rep every 2 years beginning 2011 between
these 2 candidates;
Florida 26 EVEN Carlos Curbelo Two
terms; Dist created in South Florida during 2012; ran against dem Joe Garcia
won by 2.93%pts at 52%; ran again against dem Joe Garcia and won by 6% pts at
53%; "has a reputation as a moderate Republican";  (this district is a Clinton district by 17
points — we have to target this seat for flipping — it has been voting
Democratic in national elections for some time).
53 – 41   Flip
Hampshire 1
R+1 Carol Shea Porter One
of the most competitive congressional districts. Battles with Frank Guinta,
who beats her every other term; she won at 44.3% to 42.99% against Guinta and
3 Independent candidates in 2016; but in 2014 he beat her 51.71% to her
48.11%; beginning in 2006 ,she served 2 consecutive terms; then began the
alternating pattern in 2011;  
44 – 43   Defend
Colorado 6 D+1 Mike Coffman 6
consecutive terms since 2008; since 2012, his wins run the range between
48-52%; dem candidates run between 43-46%; ballots split with Libretarian,
Green and other party;
Michigan 1 R+5 Jack Bergman 1st
term.  Bergman, who succeeded 3 term,
retiring Repub Dan Benishek, won 55% of the vote to Johnson’s 40% and
Bostow’s 4%; Benishek replaced dem Bart Stupak, who served 9 consecutive
terms after succeeding John Conyers who had served 14 consecutive terms;
Illinois 12 EVEN Mike Bost 2
terms; beat dem and green party by 54%; interesting play between DeVos and
his endorsement by the Illinois Education Association "strong record in
support of public education in the Metro East and Southern Illinois."
Iowa 3 EVEN David Young 2
terms.  He beat dem Mowrer handily
53.5% to 39.8% in 2016;  Iowa uses a
computer program to generate maps only with respect to population. 8
consecutive, termed dem Boswell was replaced by 1 term rep, who was then
replaced by Young; redistricting occurred; dem Appel ran against Young in
2014 and lost; she picked up 42.2% of votes;
California 25 R+3 Steve Knight 2nd
term; Trump supporter; defeated Democrat Bryan Caforio with 54% of the vote;
in his first run, defeated Strickland with 53% of the vote; he’s a policeman
and vet; dems have not held this seat since Edward R. Roybal’s tenure of 1974
– 1992; after Roybal’s retirement, district was split in half;
50 – 44   Flip
Michigan 7 R+3 Tim Walberg 4
terms; redistricted, rendering the 7th district slightly more favorable to
Republicans; in last election he defeated Gretchen Driskell with 55% of the
vote; she had 40% vote and independent had 4.92%; has voted repeatedly to
repeal the Affordable Care Act;
York 1
R+2 Lee Zeldin 2
terms; defeated dem Anna Throne-Holst with 55.19% votes to her 44.81%; he
defeated dem incumbent Bishop, 54% to 45%; endorsed Donald Trump as the
Republican presidential nominee; voted for the Defund Planned Parenthood Act
of 2015; never sponsored legislation to protect the environment per Sierra
Club of Long Island and the League of Conservation Voters;
"FiveThirtyEight gives Zeldin an 100% Trump Score meaning that he has
always voted with President Trump’s position."
Michigan 8 R+2 Mike Bishop Registration
is very close — R +2.  Trump won this
district 51 – 44; so not overwhelming. 
It has been electing Republicans for a long time.  So, some Republican advantage is definitely
baked in.  But, this is a targetable
district.  The Democratic candidates
need to be stronger it seems. 
Grassroots support should get this race a lot closer based on the
district’s registration.
56 – 39.2 161,339 Flip ?
York 21
EVEN Elise Stefanik The
district has a dead even registration picture — both parties are equal, and
neither has a built in advantage. 
Moreover, this is a district that Obama won by 5 and 6 points in 2008
and 2012 respectively.  Yet, it went
for Trump 54 – 40.  This is EXACTLY the
kind of district where Democrats CANNOT let a Republican win.  Trump disillusion and other factors must be
used to target the incumbent.    Elise
is the youngest woman to be elected to Congress (32) in 2014 — she is a
darling of the right wing, and WAY TOO CONSERVATIVE for this district.  Democratic opponents need to be much
stronger to take her on — hopefully, the grassroots can get fired up and
nominate someone to take Elise Stefanik down.
65.3 – 30.3 83,273 Flip
Montana at-large R+7 Ryan Zinke This
district is comfortably Republican in registration, and has been voting
Republican for Congress for some time. 
Probably out of reach even in a wave… 
Zinke is Secretary of Interior. 
We have to see if this becomes like GA 06?
56.2 – 40.5 62,885 No
Jersey 5
R+4 Josh Gottheimer Went
for Trump by 1 point.  So, our guy is
out performing the registration numbers; and also 2016 numbers.  We have to keep this seat Blue…  DEFEND!!
51.1 – 46.7 7,473 DEFEND
Michigan 6 R+1 Fred Upton Registration
is extremely close — R only + 1.  But,
Upton has been winning this race forever it seems (decades).   It went for Obama by 10 points in 2008;
but Romney by 1 point and Trump by 12!  
So, the district has been trending towards Republican candidates
generally.  We should keep an eye,
given the registration split — but it will be a tough get given Upton…
58.6 – 36.4 56,593 No
Minnesota 2 R+2 Jason Lewis This
was a very close race.  Clinton lost by
2 points; and Jason Lewis won by 2 points. 
This is definitely a race to target and flip!  Lewis does not have a long track record —
he’s a freshman; but the race was always voting Republican (John Kline) for
Congress.  Time to change it.
47 -45.2 22,574 Flip
California 10 R+1 Jeff Denham Very
close registration.  It went for
Clinton by 3 points in 2016; and for Obama by a large margin in both 2008 and
2012 (by almost 30 points in this case).  
Redistricting moved this away from John Garamendi, giving the
Republicans an opening.  It is
definitely to be designated as a Flip seat. 
Grassroots recruitment of a person to take on Denham is critical.  He is a freshman.
51.7 – 48.3 8,201 Flip
Pennsylvania 6 R+2 Ryan Costello Pennsylvania
does not permit early voting or no-excuse absentee voting.
Pennsylvania implemented an online voter registration system in August
Since Pennsylvania’s voter ID law was struck down in 2014, voters are
generally not required to present identification at the polls (first-time
voters may be required to present identification when they first vote).
57.2 – 42.8 52,469 Flip (if this is a wave election)
Virginia 10 R+2 Barbara Comstock Virginia
permits online voter registration.
Virginia does not, however, allow no-excuse absentee voting or early
Every voter in Virginia must present identification at the polls or else
cast a provisional ballot. Valid identification includes the following:
Virginia voter registration card; Virginia driver’s license; military ID; any
federal, state, or local government-issued ID; employer-issued photo ID card;
concealed handgun permit; student ID from any higher education institution in
Virginia; or a current utility bill, bank statement, paycheck, or government
check indicating the name and address of the voter. The identification must
be current or expired only within the last year.
52.7 – 46.9 – .4 (Write-In) 23,079 Flip
Pennsylvania 16 R+4 Lloyd Smucker Pennsylvania
does not permit early voting or no-excuse absentee voting.
Pennsylvania implemented an online voter registration system in August
Since Pennsylvania’s voter ID law was struck down in 2014, voters are
generally not required to present identification at the polls (first-time
voters may be required to present identification when they first vote).
53.8 – 42.9 – 3.4 (Libertarian) 34,083 (incl. 10,518 Libertarian) Flip
California 21 D+2 David Valadao California
permits online voter registration, early voting, and no-excuse absentee
According to the Office of the California Secretary of State, "in most
cases, California voters are not required to show identification at their
polling place." A voter may be asked to provide identification at the
polls if it is his or her first time voting (this requirement applies if the
individual registered by mail without providing a driver’s license number,
state identification number, or the last four digits of a Social Security
number). Acceptable forms of identification include driver’s licenses,
utility bills, or any document sent by a government agency. 
56.7 – 43.3 17,844 Flip
Colorado 3 R+5 Scott Tipton Colorado
permits online voter registration.
Colorado is one of only three states utilizing a vote-by-mail system for
all elections.
Colorado voters must provide a valid form of identification if they choose
to vote in person. The identification does not have to include a photo.
54.6 – 40.3 – 5.1 (Libertarian) 53,306  (incl. 18,903
Flip (if this is a wave election)
Indiana 2 R+6 Jackie Walorski N/A 59.3 – 36.9 – 3.8 (Libertarian) 61,954 (incl. 10,601 Libertarian) No
York 24
D+5 John Katko This
district went overwhelmingly for Obama (14 and 16 points in 2008 and 2012);
and for Clinton by 3 points in 2016. 
Also, this is a D + 6 district. 
Colleen Deacon is the candidate that lost to John Katko, and lost
big.  Perhaps she is not the right
opponent.  Katko has to be tied to
Trump in a way that brings him down. 
Very doable.
60.6 – 39.4 63,721 Flip
Kansas 3 R+5 Kevin Yoder        
California 49 R+4 Darrell Issa Replace
Darrell Issa. He’s an ideologue and an opportunist who won by less than 1% in
2016.   This seat should be
targeted.   There is going to be a
tussle between Democrats in the primary: Applegate, who ran the last time,
and lost is a good candidate.  Levin is
the challenger to Applegate, and seems to have more progressive
credentials.  We need to make sure
Democrats don’t destroy each other in the primary.  HILLARY WON THIS DISTRCT.  VERY GETTABLE…
Virginia 4 D+8 Donald McEachin        
Nevada 3 EVEN Jacky Rosen Jacky
is a good candidate with an extremely narrow win in 2016, and we could
support her as we fight Heller.  
Virginia 5 R+5 Tom Garrett This
seat has been mostly Republican (including during the Obama years, when VA
swung towards Democrats).  This will be
a tough get unless this turns into a massive wave.  Garrett is really conservative, and if
Trump becomes the anvil around the Republicans in 2018, he might become
Florida 10 D+9 Val Demings        
York 23
R+3 Tom Reed Typical
of upstate New York, this went for Obama by a narrow percentage in 2008,
switched to Romney by a bit in 2012; and lurched 15 points towards Trump in
2016…    The district has more
Republicans, but not by much.  Reed has
been in the office since the 2010 Republican wave.  This is a district to watch in case there
is an anti-Trump backlash — many of our people went to Trump because of Clinton,
perhaps.  Again, the opponent is
57.6 – 43    
Pennsylvania 8 R+1 Brian Fitzpatrick His
brother Mike was in the seat for a while. 
He was replaced by Patrick Murphy (an Iraq war vet); but Brian has
been winning since then.  This district
should be a target for Democrats.  We
need to track the Trump numbers — since Trump won Pennsylvania by a
54.4 – 45.6   Flip
Indiana 9 R+9 Trey Hollingsworth Not
Minnesota 3 R+2 Erik Paulsen This
district went for Clinton by 10 POINTS! 
So, we need to tie Erik Paulsen’s to Trump and give him NO wiggle
room.  Obama won in this district by a
couple of points in both races.  Point
is, Clinton out-performed Obana — and that is something to build on.  However, Paulsen seems to have won this
district very comfortably several terms. 
So, the grassroots should recruit a good candidate and start the
campaign again this guy — he will be hard to bring down.
Florida 7 R+2 Stephanie Murphy She
is in a red district historically.  She
won the last time narrowly, and is a big Republican target.
51.5 — 48.5   Defend
York 19
D+1 John Faso The
district, like other upstate New York districts, went for Obama in 2008 and
2012; but flipped to Trump (by 6 points) in 2016.  This is definitely a seat to target.   However, there will likely be some buyer’s
remorse about Trump; and Faso has to be tied to that without mercy.   Not an easy seat to flip — it has been
sending Republicans to Congress last few times.  But, it has to be on the list of flippable
for us.
51 – 44   Flip
Wisconsin 8 R+2 Mike Gallagher This
was an Obama district in 2008 by 2 points; then went to Romney by a few
points; and now to Trump by 17 POINTS! 
Mike Gallagher is a rookie and, if we see some regrets about Trump,
that is how we have to build the case against Gallagher.  Grassroots support and recruitment of a
good candidate to take on Gallagher is equally important.  The Democrats have been underperforming
their registration split in this district for years.  It is not clear why this.  These races should be closer.  Early start on recruiting a good candidate
to take on Gallagher is key it appears.
Florida 13 D+3 Charlie Crist       Defend
York 22
R+3 Claudia Tenney District
is in Central New York;  generally
republican; but very convertible even if there is a small Blue Wave in 2018
— obviously we should shoot for Blue Tsunami;;   They voted for Trump 55-39 — mostly white
population being the biggest reason; and also no big urban areas.  But, they also went for Kerry / Obama.  Go figure. 
So, gettable if we view Trump vote as outlier.  Claudia is a lawyer, well-qualified for
this office; known in the community; 
and the Tenney name is locally famous (her father was a Supreme Court
judge for New York).  She is media
savvy — and has a radio career.  She
got in once Richard Hanna (popular Democrat retired in 2016).    A good candidate might be able to turn
this distrct back to blue.  The Trump
margin is large compared to the R+3 — so we need to tie Claudia to Trump and
scrutinize and publicize her votes on the Trumpian agenda.
Florida 27 R+1 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen This
district voted for Obama in 2012. 
Ileana is a visible congress woman. 
Cuban American.  This district
is newly redrawn, so there is not a long history, but it is a mixed district
(R+1 is pretty encouraging).  She has
been in congress for a long time and will be a tough out as an
incumbent.  She is the senior most
woman in the Republican caucus in the house. 
Formidable as a campaigner and opponent.  She makes reasonable noises, but always
manages to vote with right wing positions most of the time.   But. she supports gay marriage, etc.  As Republicans go, she is not
horrible.  However, we have to tie her
to Trump.  She will step away from
Trump if he becomes politically untenable. 
Florida has some "non strict ID requirements" that could
suppress the vote — voter mus show an id with their signature.