Congressional Seat Analysis
| District –?– | CPVI –?– | Winner in 2016 –? |
Comments | Margin in 2016 | Raw Votes | Flip or Defend? |
| Florida 18 | R+3 | Brian Mast |
run for Florida Senate, and
lost to Marco Rubio. This left this district available for Republicans, and they took advantage. It is a toss up to slightly Republican district. We need to see if Murphy will run again. Murphy is not a favorite of Progressives — but, if he runs, we can flip this for sure. If Murphy does not run, we need to focus energy here to win. But, it is worth targeting. Challenge: Trump won the district 53 – 44; Obama also lost here, but by less than Hillary. |
53 – 44 | Flip | |
| New York 3 |
EVEN | Thomas Suozzi |
This seat has to be defended.
It went for
Hillary 52-46, and for Obama by similar margins. But, it is a close race. |
53 – 46 | Defend | |
| Arizona 1 | R+4 | Tom O’Halleran |
This district has more native Americans
than any other district in the US,
according to Wikipedia. It is generally considered a swing district, although the Democrats here are not necessarily progressives. It is ALWAYS competitive, and both parties will fight tooth and nail. We must defend. Tom’s opponent, Paul Babeu, was a slightly crazy law enforcement type. This should be defended vigorously. |
51 – 44 | Defend | |
| California 24 | D+4 | Salud Carbajal | This district is fairly predictably voting Democratic after redistricting in the last census. This seat should be safe. |
53 – 46 | ||
| California 52 | D+2 | Scott Peters | Historically Republican district is swinging more Democratic recently. Northern San Diego area. Went from the horrible Duncan Hunter family to Scott Peters. This seat MUST be defended. |
57 – 44 | ||
| Florida 2 | R+18 | Neal Dunn | Went for Trump by 36 %. There is no hope. Not sure what this is doing on this list of close races. It is in Florida pan handle, which is serious Republican territory. |
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| California 7 | EVEN | Ami Bera | This district went for Clinton, and before that Obama. But, Ami Bera is relatively new and has managed to win a close race — too close to call until a week after election day!! This seat should be defended. His Republican opponent Scott Jones is a sheriff, and well known in local circles. So, Ami needs to get his act together, and we have to help. |
51 – 49 | Defend | |
| New York 25 |
D+7 | Louise Slaughter | This should not be on this list. Solidly Cinton and Obama district. It has been trending Democratic, and Louise has been there for 3 terms. |
56 – 44 | ||
| Maryland 6 | D+4 | John K. Delaney | This was a big Clinton district 56 – 39. Delaney won by 16 points. We are good on this one. |
56 – 40 | ||
| Nebraska 2 | R+4 | Don Bacon | Went for Trump by just 2 percent in 2016. Borderline district that includes Omaha. If 2018 becomes a wave, this is DEFINITELY flippable. Democratic candidate Brad Ashford was the incumbent, and lost the race to Don Bacon by just over 1 point. |
49 – 48 | 4500 votes!! | Flip |
| Minnesota 8 | D+1 | Rick Nolan | An ex farmer who’s been there a couple of terms, Rick Nolan seems to be a good candidate to defend. Danger is that this district went for Trump by 16 points. They also went for Obama narrowly in 2012. So, this is a seat we could lose, and must be defended. |
Defend | ||
| Maine 2 | D+2 | Bruce Poliquin | This district went for Trump by 10 points, but also for Obama by 8 points. Bruce won because the prior 2 incumbents decided to run for Governor. This seat can be flipped — but the Democrats need to run a good candidate that is known and connects to the people. |
55 – 45 | Flip | |
| Nevada 4 | D+4 | Ruben Kihuen | Clinton district by about 5 points. Should be easy to defend, but Ruben won a narrow 4 point victory — pretty much right at the party registration difference. Also the 2 last incumbents LOST re-election in this district — which is anomalous. 90% of the reps win re-election easily. So, this is a district to watch and defend. |
49 – 45 | Defend | |
| Texas 23 | R+3 | Will Hurd | Currently held by Republican Will Hurd. Re-election is in jeopardy because he votes on reckless house Republican policies. Not concerned with South West Texan constituents. So, he has become vulnerable. Some challenges because this is a Republican district. 2016 Trump numbers?? |
48.3 — 47 | Flip | |
| Arizona 2 | R+3 | Martha McSally | Two consecutive terms; lost her initial bid; handily beat dem on 2 slot ticket at 56.96% to 43.04% in 2016; Votes party line 95%+ of the time; does not share her views; district 2 boundaries have been redrawn 2xs after culled from dist 8, the Udalls historical dist.; held 10 yrs by (R) Frank Trents; then lost to 1 term dem, Ron Barber, who then lost to McSally; |
57 – 43 | Flip?? | |
| Utah 4 | R+16 | Mia Love | Two consecutive terms; district created by 2012 from reapportionments. Love was described as a Tea Party conservative in 2012. Per Washington Post 2015 article, "Love’s rhetoric from 2012 to 2014 changed a bit, even as her policy positions remained fairly constant" and noted that Love had "angered some conservatives when she questioned the tea party driven government shutdown in 2013 over Obamacare." A blogger for libertarian-leaning magazine Reason described her as a "Trojan horse libertarian". |
54 – 43 | Flip?? | |
| Alaska at-large | R+12 | Don Young | 23 consecutive terms; the sole congressional district for the state of Alaska; longest serving member of Congress; 83 yrs of age; dem candidates split the ticket with independents and libertarians; last 2 elections dems pulling votes in 41 and 36 percentile; co-author to Bridge to Nowhere; listed as the third-worst congressman by magazine Rolling Stone, and dubbed "Mr. Pork" |
50 – 36 – 10 – 3 (Libertarians and Constitution parties) |
Flip?? | |
| Iowa 1 | D+5 | Rod Blum | 2nd term; 2016 beat Monica Vernon by 7.6% pts to win at 53.7%; beat dem candidate Pat Murphy by 2.48% pts to win at 51.1%; his win % is increasing as dems decrease, but not by huge % pts.; dem Braley held seat for 4 consecutive terms, then lost senate bid to Joni Ernst and then lost his bid for house reelection in this dist; (Trump won this district by 3 points; and lot of turnover in this distrct — if Bruce Braley joins this race instead of running for senate, good chance of a flip) |
53.7 – 46.1 | Flip | |
| Illinois 10 | D+8 | Brad Schneider | 2 non-consecutive terms; He defeated Dold 53%-48% with a difference of 14,900 votes; seems to alternate dem and rep every 2 years beginning 2011 between these 2 candidates; |
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| Florida 26 | EVEN | Carlos Curbelo | Two terms; Dist created in South Florida during 2012; ran against dem Joe Garcia won by 2.93%pts at 52%; ran again against dem Joe Garcia and won by 6% pts at 53%; "has a reputation as a moderate Republican"; (this district is a Clinton district by 17 points — we have to target this seat for flipping — it has been voting Democratic in national elections for some time). |
53 – 41 | Flip | |
| New Hampshire 1 |
R+1 | Carol Shea Porter | One of the most competitive congressional districts. Battles with Frank Guinta, who beats her every other term; she won at 44.3% to 42.99% against Guinta and 3 Independent candidates in 2016; but in 2014 he beat her 51.71% to her 48.11%; beginning in 2006 ,she served 2 consecutive terms; then began the alternating pattern in 2011; |
44 – 43 | Defend | |
| Colorado 6 | D+1 | Mike Coffman | 6 consecutive terms since 2008; since 2012, his wins run the range between 48-52%; dem candidates run between 43-46%; ballots split with Libretarian, Green and other party; |
Flip | ||
| Michigan 1 | R+5 | Jack Bergman | 1st term. Bergman, who succeeded 3 term, retiring Repub Dan Benishek, won 55% of the vote to Johnson’s 40% and Bostow’s 4%; Benishek replaced dem Bart Stupak, who served 9 consecutive terms after succeeding John Conyers who had served 14 consecutive terms; |
Flip | ||
| Illinois 12 | EVEN | Mike Bost | 2 terms; beat dem and green party by 54%; interesting play between DeVos and his endorsement by the Illinois Education Association "strong record in support of public education in the Metro East and Southern Illinois." |
Flip | ||
| Iowa 3 | EVEN | David Young | 2 terms. He beat dem Mowrer handily 53.5% to 39.8% in 2016; Iowa uses a computer program to generate maps only with respect to population. 8 consecutive, termed dem Boswell was replaced by 1 term rep, who was then replaced by Young; redistricting occurred; dem Appel ran against Young in 2014 and lost; she picked up 42.2% of votes; |
Flip | ||
| California 25 | R+3 | Steve Knight | 2nd term; Trump supporter; defeated Democrat Bryan Caforio with 54% of the vote; in his first run, defeated Strickland with 53% of the vote; he’s a policeman and vet; dems have not held this seat since Edward R. Roybal’s tenure of 1974 – 1992; after Roybal’s retirement, district was split in half; |
50 – 44 | Flip | |
| Michigan 7 | R+3 | Tim Walberg | 4 terms; redistricted, rendering the 7th district slightly more favorable to Republicans; in last election he defeated Gretchen Driskell with 55% of the vote; she had 40% vote and independent had 4.92%; has voted repeatedly to repeal the Affordable Care Act; |
Flip | ||
| New York 1 |
R+2 | Lee Zeldin | 2 terms; defeated dem Anna Throne-Holst with 55.19% votes to her 44.81%; he defeated dem incumbent Bishop, 54% to 45%; endorsed Donald Trump as the Republican presidential nominee; voted for the Defund Planned Parenthood Act of 2015; never sponsored legislation to protect the environment per Sierra Club of Long Island and the League of Conservation Voters; "FiveThirtyEight gives Zeldin an 100% Trump Score meaning that he has always voted with President Trump’s position." |
Flip | ||
| Michigan 8 | R+2 | Mike Bishop | Registration is very close — R +2. Trump won this district 51 – 44; so not overwhelming. It has been electing Republicans for a long time. So, some Republican advantage is definitely baked in. But, this is a targetable district. The Democratic candidates need to be stronger it seems. Grassroots support should get this race a lot closer based on the district’s registration. |
56 – 39.2 | 161,339 | Flip ? |
| New York 21 |
EVEN | Elise Stefanik | The district has a dead even registration picture — both parties are equal, and neither has a built in advantage. Moreover, this is a district that Obama won by 5 and 6 points in 2008 and 2012 respectively. Yet, it went for Trump 54 – 40. This is EXACTLY the kind of district where Democrats CANNOT let a Republican win. Trump disillusion and other factors must be used to target the incumbent. Elise is the youngest woman to be elected to Congress (32) in 2014 — she is a darling of the right wing, and WAY TOO CONSERVATIVE for this district. Democratic opponents need to be much stronger to take her on — hopefully, the grassroots can get fired up and nominate someone to take Elise Stefanik down. |
65.3 – 30.3 | 83,273 | Flip |
| Montana at-large | R+7 | Ryan Zinke | This district is comfortably Republican in registration, and has been voting Republican for Congress for some time. Probably out of reach even in a wave… Zinke is Secretary of Interior. We have to see if this becomes like GA 06? |
56.2 – 40.5 | 62,885 | No |
| New Jersey 5 |
R+4 | Josh Gottheimer | Went for Trump by 1 point. So, our guy is out performing the registration numbers; and also 2016 numbers. We have to keep this seat Blue… DEFEND!! |
51.1 – 46.7 | 7,473 | DEFEND |
| Michigan 6 | R+1 | Fred Upton | Registration is extremely close — R only + 1. But, Upton has been winning this race forever it seems (decades). It went for Obama by 10 points in 2008; but Romney by 1 point and Trump by 12! So, the district has been trending towards Republican candidates generally. We should keep an eye, given the registration split — but it will be a tough get given Upton… |
58.6 – 36.4 | 56,593 | No |
| Minnesota 2 | R+2 | Jason Lewis | This was a very close race. Clinton lost by 2 points; and Jason Lewis won by 2 points. This is definitely a race to target and flip! Lewis does not have a long track record — he’s a freshman; but the race was always voting Republican (John Kline) for Congress. Time to change it. |
47 -45.2 | 22,574 | Flip |
| California 10 | R+1 | Jeff Denham | Very close registration. It went for Clinton by 3 points in 2016; and for Obama by a large margin in both 2008 and 2012 (by almost 30 points in this case). Redistricting moved this away from John Garamendi, giving the Republicans an opening. It is definitely to be designated as a Flip seat. Grassroots recruitment of a person to take on Denham is critical. He is a freshman. |
51.7 – 48.3 | 8,201 | Flip |
| Pennsylvania 6 | R+2 | Ryan Costello | Pennsylvania does not permit early voting or no-excuse absentee voting. Pennsylvania implemented an online voter registration system in August 2015. Since Pennsylvania’s voter ID law was struck down in 2014, voters are generally not required to present identification at the polls (first-time voters may be required to present identification when they first vote). |
57.2 – 42.8 | 52,469 | Flip (if this is a wave election) |
| Virginia 10 | R+2 | Barbara Comstock | Virginia permits online voter registration. Virginia does not, however, allow no-excuse absentee voting or early voting. Every voter in Virginia must present identification at the polls or else cast a provisional ballot. Valid identification includes the following: Virginia voter registration card; Virginia driver’s license; military ID; any federal, state, or local government-issued ID; employer-issued photo ID card; concealed handgun permit; student ID from any higher education institution in Virginia; or a current utility bill, bank statement, paycheck, or government check indicating the name and address of the voter. The identification must be current or expired only within the last year. |
52.7 – 46.9 – .4 (Write-In) | 23,079 | Flip |
| Pennsylvania 16 | R+4 | Lloyd Smucker | Pennsylvania does not permit early voting or no-excuse absentee voting. Pennsylvania implemented an online voter registration system in August 2015. Since Pennsylvania’s voter ID law was struck down in 2014, voters are generally not required to present identification at the polls (first-time voters may be required to present identification when they first vote). |
53.8 – 42.9 – 3.4 (Libertarian) | 34,083 (incl. 10,518 Libertarian) | Flip |
| California 21 | D+2 | David Valadao | California permits online voter registration, early voting, and no-excuse absentee voting. According to the Office of the California Secretary of State, "in most cases, California voters are not required to show identification at their polling place." A voter may be asked to provide identification at the polls if it is his or her first time voting (this requirement applies if the individual registered by mail without providing a driver’s license number, state identification number, or the last four digits of a Social Security number). Acceptable forms of identification include driver’s licenses, utility bills, or any document sent by a government agency. |
56.7 – 43.3 | 17,844 | Flip |
| Colorado 3 | R+5 | Scott Tipton | Colorado permits online voter registration. Colorado is one of only three states utilizing a vote-by-mail system for all elections. Colorado voters must provide a valid form of identification if they choose to vote in person. The identification does not have to include a photo. |
54.6 – 40.3 – 5.1 (Libertarian) | 53,306 (incl. 18,903 Libertarian) |
Flip (if this is a wave election) |
| Indiana 2 | R+6 | Jackie Walorski | N/A | 59.3 – 36.9 – 3.8 (Libertarian) | 61,954 (incl. 10,601 Libertarian) | No |
| New York 24 |
D+5 | John Katko | This district went overwhelmingly for Obama (14 and 16 points in 2008 and 2012); and for Clinton by 3 points in 2016. Also, this is a D + 6 district. Colleen Deacon is the candidate that lost to John Katko, and lost big. Perhaps she is not the right opponent. Katko has to be tied to Trump in a way that brings him down. Very doable. |
60.6 – 39.4 | 63,721 | Flip |
| Kansas 3 | R+5 | Kevin Yoder | ||||
| California 49 | R+4 | Darrell Issa | Replace Darrell Issa. He’s an ideologue and an opportunist who won by less than 1% in 2016. This seat should be targeted. There is going to be a tussle between Democrats in the primary: Applegate, who ran the last time, and lost is a good candidate. Levin is the challenger to Applegate, and seems to have more progressive credentials. We need to make sure Democrats don’t destroy each other in the primary. HILLARY WON THIS DISTRCT. VERY GETTABLE… |
Flip!! | ||
| Virginia 4 | D+8 | Donald McEachin | ||||
| Nevada 3 | EVEN | Jacky Rosen | Jacky is a good candidate with an extremely narrow win in 2016, and we could support her as we fight Heller. |
Defend | ||
| Virginia 5 | R+5 | Tom Garrett | This seat has been mostly Republican (including during the Obama years, when VA swung towards Democrats). This will be a tough get unless this turns into a massive wave. Garrett is really conservative, and if Trump becomes the anvil around the Republicans in 2018, he might become vulnerable. |
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| Florida 10 | D+9 | Val Demings | ||||
| New York 23 |
R+3 | Tom Reed | Typical of upstate New York, this went for Obama by a narrow percentage in 2008, switched to Romney by a bit in 2012; and lurched 15 points towards Trump in 2016… The district has more Republicans, but not by much. Reed has been in the office since the 2010 Republican wave. This is a district to watch in case there is an anti-Trump backlash — many of our people went to Trump because of Clinton, perhaps. Again, the opponent is critical. |
57.6 – 43 | ||
| Pennsylvania 8 | R+1 | Brian Fitzpatrick | His brother Mike was in the seat for a while. He was replaced by Patrick Murphy (an Iraq war vet); but Brian has been winning since then. This district should be a target for Democrats. We need to track the Trump numbers — since Trump won Pennsylvania by a point. |
54.4 – 45.6 | Flip | |
| Indiana 9 | R+9 | Trey Hollingsworth | Not gettable… |
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| Minnesota 3 | R+2 | Erik Paulsen | This district went for Clinton by 10 POINTS! So, we need to tie Erik Paulsen’s to Trump and give him NO wiggle room. Obama won in this district by a couple of points in both races. Point is, Clinton out-performed Obana — and that is something to build on. However, Paulsen seems to have won this district very comfortably several terms. So, the grassroots should recruit a good candidate and start the campaign again this guy — he will be hard to bring down. |
Flip | ||
| Florida 7 | R+2 | Stephanie Murphy | She is in a red district historically. She won the last time narrowly, and is a big Republican target. |
51.5 — 48.5 | Defend | |
| New York 19 |
D+1 | John Faso | The district, like other upstate New York districts, went for Obama in 2008 and 2012; but flipped to Trump (by 6 points) in 2016. This is definitely a seat to target. However, there will likely be some buyer’s remorse about Trump; and Faso has to be tied to that without mercy. Not an easy seat to flip — it has been sending Republicans to Congress last few times. But, it has to be on the list of flippable for us. |
51 – 44 | Flip | |
| Wisconsin 8 | R+2 | Mike Gallagher | This was an Obama district in 2008 by 2 points; then went to Romney by a few points; and now to Trump by 17 POINTS! Mike Gallagher is a rookie and, if we see some regrets about Trump, that is how we have to build the case against Gallagher. Grassroots support and recruitment of a good candidate to take on Gallagher is equally important. The Democrats have been underperforming their registration split in this district for years. It is not clear why this. These races should be closer. Early start on recruiting a good candidate to take on Gallagher is key it appears. |
Flip | ||
| Florida 13 | D+3 | Charlie Crist | Defend | |||
| New York 22 |
R+3 | Claudia Tenney | District is in Central New York; generally republican; but very convertible even if there is a small Blue Wave in 2018 — obviously we should shoot for Blue Tsunami;; They voted for Trump 55-39 — mostly white population being the biggest reason; and also no big urban areas. But, they also went for Kerry / Obama. Go figure. So, gettable if we view Trump vote as outlier. Claudia is a lawyer, well-qualified for this office; known in the community; and the Tenney name is locally famous (her father was a Supreme Court judge for New York). She is media savvy — and has a radio career. She got in once Richard Hanna (popular Democrat retired in 2016). A good candidate might be able to turn this distrct back to blue. The Trump margin is large compared to the R+3 — so we need to tie Claudia to Trump and scrutinize and publicize her votes on the Trumpian agenda. |
Flip | ||
| Florida 27 | R+1 | Ileana Ros-Lehtinen | This district voted for Obama in 2012. Ileana is a visible congress woman. Cuban American. This district is newly redrawn, so there is not a long history, but it is a mixed district (R+1 is pretty encouraging). She has been in congress for a long time and will be a tough out as an incumbent. She is the senior most woman in the Republican caucus in the house. Formidable as a campaigner and opponent. She makes reasonable noises, but always manages to vote with right wing positions most of the time. But. she supports gay marriage, etc. As Republicans go, she is not horrible. However, we have to tie her to Trump. She will step away from Trump if he becomes politically untenable. Florida has some "non strict ID requirements" that could suppress the vote — voter mus show an id with their signature. |
Flip |
