What is in the table is information about the potentially “close” races for the US Congress in 2018.
- There are 58 seats in all that are deemed to be “in play”.
- By default, the data is grouped into10 rows in each screen. You can see more data by choosing how many entries to see from the selection box on the left.
- Some of these seats are marked Flip (to varying degrees); Those are seats we can target to win, some more strongly than others.
- Some seats are marked Defend. These are seats that we have on the Blue team that we must guarantee we do not lose.
- Filter in or out specific columns by clicking on “Columns” and use the buttons there to control what you see.
- The “comments” column shows you our best research and reasoning. If you want a high level view, leave out that column.
- The table shows 10 items at a time; but you can opt to see as much (or as little) data as you wish;
- Use the Search box to look for anything you want from the table. For example, start entering “Florida” to see the Florida seats. As you type in the search string, you will see the filtering happening in real time.
- Or, enter “Flip” into the Search box to see which seats can be targeted for our side in 2018. The table also display the count of the number of entries as you search.
- The list of ALL Congressional Districts in the US may be found by here.
- The abbreviation CPVI (Cook Partisan Voting Index.) used below is a key statistic in understanding the distribution of voters by party in that district.
- The table has direct links to each Congressional district to ease your research (if the table works).
US House of Representatives Analysis
|District||CPVI||Incumbent||2016 Result||Total Votes (2016)||Our Comments||Our Findings|
|Alaska at-large||R+12||Young, Don (R)||50.3% R||308,198||23 consecutive terms; the sole congressional district for the state of Alaska; longest serving member of Congress; 83 yrs of age; dem candidates split the ticket with independents and libertarians; last 2 elections dems pulling votes in 41 and 36 percentile; co-author to Bridge to Nowhere; listed as the third-worst congressman by magazine Rolling Stone, and dubbed "Mr. Pork"||Nice to Flip!|
|Arizona 1||R+4||O'Halleran, Tom (D)||51%||280,710||This district has more native Americans than any other district in the US, according to Wikipedia. It is generally considered a swing district, although the Democrats here are not necessarily progressives. It is ALWAYS competitive, and both parties will fight tooth and nail. We must defend. Tom's opponent, Paul Babeu, was a slightly crazy law enforcement type. This should be defended vigorously.||Defend|
|Arizona 2||R+3||McSally, Mary (R)||57.0% R||315,679||Two consecutive terms; lost her initial bid; handily beat dem on 2 slot ticket at 56.96% to 43.04% in 2016; Votes party line 95%+ of the time; does not share her views; district 2 boundaries have been redrawn 2xs after culled from dist 8, the Udalls historical dist.; held 10 yrs by (R) Frank Trents; then lost to 1 term dem, Ron Barber, who then lost to McSally;||Nice to Flip!|
|California 10||R+1||Denham, Jeff (R)||51.7||241,141||Very close registration. It went for Clinton by 3 points in 2016; and for Obama by a large margin in both 2008 and 2012 (by almost 30 points in this case). Redistricting moved this away from John Garamendi, giving the Republicans an opening. It is definitely to be designated as a Flip seat. Grassroots recruitment of a person to take on Denham is critical. He is a freshman.||Strong Flip!|
|California 21||D+2||David Valadao (R)||56.7||132,408||California permits online voter registration, early voting, and no-excuse absentee voting. According to the Office of the California Secretary of State, "in most cases, California voters are not required to show identification at their polling place." A voter may be asked to provide identification at the polls if it is his or her first time voting (this requirement applies if the individual registered by mail without providing a driver's license number, state identification number, or the last four digits of a Social Security number). Acceptable forms of identification include driver's licenses, utility bills, or any document sent by a government agency.||Strong Flip!|
|California 24||D+4||Carbajal, Salud (D)||53.4||310,814||This district is fairly predictably voting Democratic after redistricting in the last census. This seat should be safe.|
|California 25||R+3||Knight, Steven (R)||53.1% R||261,161||2nd term; Trump supporter; defeated Democrat Bryan Caforio with 54% of the vote; in his first run, defeated Strickland with 53% of the vote; he's a policeman and vet; dems have not held this seat since Edward R. Roybal's tenure of 1974 – 1992; after Roybal's retirement, district was split in half;||Strong Flip!|
|California 49||R+4||Issa, Darryl (R)||50.3||310,155||Replace Darrell Issa. He's an ideologue and an opportunist who won by less than 1% in 2016. This seat should be targeted. There is going to be a tussle between Democrats in the primary: Applegate, who ran the last time, and lost is a good candidate. Levin is the challenger to Applegate, and seems to have more progressive credentials. We need to make sure Democrats don't destroy each other in the primary. HILLARY WON THIS DISTRCT. VERY GETTABLE...||Strong Flip!|
|California 52||D+2||Peters, Scott (D)||56.5||320,656||Historically Republican district is swinging more Democratic recently. Northern San Diego area. Went from the horrible Duncan Hunter family to Scott Peters. This seat MUST be defended.|
|California 7||EVEN||Bera, Ami (D)||51.20%||297,301||This district went for Clinton, and before that Obama. But, Ami Bera is relatively new and has managed to win a close race -- too close to call until a week after election day!! This seat should be defended. His Republican opponent Scott Jones is a sheriff, and well known in local circles. So, Ami needs to get his act together, and we have to help.||Defend|
|Colorado 3||R+5||Tipton, Scott (R)||54.6||374,037||Colorado permits online voter registration. Colorado is one of only three states utilizing a vote-by-mail system for all elections. Colorado voters must provide a valid form of identification if they choose to vote in person. The identification does not have to include a photo.||Flip! (if this bocomes a wave election)|
|Colorado 6||D+1||Coffman, Mike (R)||50.9% R||376,417||6 consecutive terms since 2008; since 2012, his wins run the range between 48-52%; dem candidates run between 43-46%; ballots split with Libretarian, Green and other party;||Flip!|
|Florida 10||D+9||Demings, Val (D)||64.87||305,989|
|Florida 13||D+3||Crist, Charlie (D)||51.9||355,842||Defend|
|Florida 18||R+3||Mast, Brian (R)||53.6||375,918||Patrick Murphy was the incumbent before he decided to run for Florida Senate, and lost to Marco Rubio. This left this district available for Republicans, and they took advantage. It is a toss up to slightly Republican district. We need to see if Murphy will run again. Murphy is not a favorite of Progressives -- but, if he runs, we can flip this for sure. If Murphy does not run, we need to focus energy here to win. But, it is worth targeting. Challenge: Trump won the district 53 - 44; Obama also lost here, but by less than Hillary.||Flip!|
|Florida 2||R+18||Dunn, Neal (R)||67%||343,362||Went for Trump by 36 %. There is no hope. Not sure what this is doing on this list of close races. It is in Florida pan handle, which is serious Republican territory.|
|Florida 26||EVEN||Curbelo, Carlos (R)||52.9% R||280,542||Two terms; Dist created in South Florida during 2012; ran against dem Joe Garcia won by 2.93%pts at 52%; ran again against dem Joe Garcia and won by 6% pts at 53%; "has a reputation as a moderate Republican"; (this district is a Clinton district by 17 points -- we have to target this seat for flipping -- it has been voting Democratic in national elections for some time).||Strong Flip!|
|Florida 27||R+1||Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana (R)||54.89||287,677||This district voted for Obama in 2012. Ileana is a visible congress woman. Cuban American. This district is newly redrawn, so there is not a long history, but it is a mixed district (R+1 is pretty encouraging). She has been in congress for a long time and will be a tough out as an incumbent. She is the senior most woman in the Republican caucus in the house. Formidable as a campaigner and opponent. She makes reasonable noises, but always manages to vote with right wing positions most of the time. But. she supports gay marriage, etc. As Republicans go, she is not horrible. However, we have to tie her to Trump. She will step away from Trump if he becomes politically untenable. Florida has some "non strict ID requirements" that could suppress the vote -- voter mus show an id with their signature.||Strong Flip!|
|Florida 7||R+2||Murphy, Stephanie (D)||51.47||353,655||She is in a red district historically. She won the last time narrowly, and is a big Republican target.||Defend|
|Illinois 10||D+8||Schneider, Brad (D)||52.6% D||285,996||2 non-consecutive terms; He defeated Dold 53%-48% with a difference of 14,900 votes; seems to alternate dem and rep every 2 years beginning 2011 between these 2 candidates;|
|Illinois 12||EVEN||Bost, Mike (R)||54.3% R||313,002||2 terms; beat dem and green party by 54%; interesting play between DeVos and his endorsement by the Illinois Education Association "strong record in support of public education in the Metro East and Southern Illinois."||Strong Flip!|
|Indiana 2||R+6||Walorski, Jackie (R)||59.26||277,357||N/A|
|Indiana 9||R+9||Hollingsworth, Trey (R)||54.14||322,843||Not gettable…|
|Iowa 1||D+5||Blum, Rod (R)||53.7% R||384,977||2nd term; 2016 beat Monica Vernon by 7.6% pts to win at 53.7%; beat dem candidate Pat Murphy by 2.48% pts to win at 51.1%; his win % is increasing as dems decrease, but not by huge % pts.; dem Braley held seat for 4 consecutive terms, then lost senate bid to Joni Ernst and then lost his bid for house reelection in this dist; (Trump won this district by 3 points; and lot of turnover in this distrct -- if Bruce Braley joins this race instead of running for senate, good chance of a flip)||Strong Flip!|
|Iowa 3||EVEN||Young, David (R)||53.5% R||389,167||2 terms. He beat dem Mowrer handily 53.5% to 39.8% in 2016; Iowa uses a computer program to generate maps only with respect to population. 8 consecutive, termed dem Boswell was replaced by 1 term rep, who was then replaced by Young; redistricting occurred; dem Appel ran against Young in 2014 and lost; she picked up 42.2% of votes;||Strong Flip!|
|Kansas 3||R+5||Yoder, Kevin (R)||51.3||343,113|
|Maine 2||D+2||Poliquin, Bruce (R)||54.77||406,942||This district went for Trump by 10 points, but also for Obama by 8 points. Bruce won because the prior 2 incumbents decided to run for Governor. This seat can be flipped -- but the Democrats need to run a good candidate that is known and connects to the people.||Strong Flip!|
|Maryland 6||D+4||Delaney, John K. (D)||56.00%||331,973||This was a big Clinton district 56 - 39. Delaney won by 16 points. We are good on this one.|
|Michigan 1||R+5||Bergman, Jack (R)||54.9% R||360,271||1st term. Bergman, who succeeded 3 term, retiring Repub Dan Benishek, won 55% of the vote to Johnson's 40% and Bostow's 4%; Benishek replaced dem Bart Stupak, who served 9 consecutive terms after succeeding John Conyers who had served 14 consecutive terms;||Flip! Especially in a Wave|
|Michigan 6||R+1||Upton, Fred (R)||58.64||329,565||Registration is extremely close -- R only + 1. But, Upton has been winning this race forever it seems (decades). It went for Obama by 10 points in 2008; but Romney by 1 point and Trump by 12! So, the district has been trending towards Republican candidates generally. We should keep an eye, given the registration split -- but it will be a tough get given Upton...|
|Michigan 7||R+3||Walberg, Tim (R)||55.1% R||334,807||4 terms; redistricted, rendering the 7th district slightly more favorable to Republicans; in last election he defeated Gretchen Driskell with 55% of the vote; she had 40% vote and independent had 4.92%; has voted repeatedly to repeal the Affordable Care Act;||Flip! Especially in a Wave|
|Michigan 8||R+2||Bishop, Mike (R)||56.03||366,968||Registration is very close -- R +2. Trump won this district 51 - 44; so not overwhelming. It has been electing Republicans for a long time. So, some Republican advantage is definitely baked in. But, this is a targetable district. The Democratic candidates need to be stronger it seems. Grassroots support should get this race a lot closer based on the district's registration.||Flip!|
|Minnesota 2||R+2||Lewis, Jason (R)||46.95||370,514||This was a very close race. Clinton lost by 2 points; and Jason Lewis won by 2 points. This is definitely a race to target and flip! Lewis does not have a long track record -- he's a freshman; but the race was always voting Republican (John Kline) for Congress. Time to change it.||Strong Flip!|
|Minnesota 3||R+2||Paulsen, Erik (R)||56.7||393,464||This district went for Clinton by 10 POINTS! So, we need to tie Erik Paulsen's to Trump and give him NO wiggle room. Obama won in this district by a couple of points in both races. Point is, Clinton out-performed Obana -- and that is something to build on. However, Paulsen seems to have won this district very comfortably several terms. So, the grassroots should recruit a good candidate and start the campaign again this guy -- he will be hard to bring down.||Flip!|
|Minnesota 8||D+1||Nolan, Rick (D)||50.17||356,979||An ex farmer who's been there a couple of terms, Rick Nolan seems to be a good candidate to defend. Danger is that this district went for Trump by 16 points. They also went for Obama narrowly in 2012. So, this is a seat we could lose, and must be defended.||Defend|
|Montana at-large||R+7||Zinke, Ryan (R)||56.19%||516,901||This district is comfortably Republican in registration, and has been voting Republican for Congress for some time. Probably out of reach even in a wave… Zinke is Secretary of Interior. We have to see if this becomes like GA 06?|
|Nebraska 2||R+4||Bacon, Don (R)||48.93||288,308||Went for Trump by just 2 percent in 2016. Borderline district that includes Omaha. If 2018 becomes a wave, this is DEFINITELY flippable. Democratic candidate Brad Ashford was the incumbent, and lost the race to Don Bacon by just over 1 point.||Flip!|
|Nevada 3||EVEN||Rosen, Jacky (D)||47.23||310,510||Jacky is a good candidate with an extremely narrow win in 2016, and we could support her as we fight Heller.||Defend|
|Nevada 4||D+4||Kihuen, Rugen (D)||48.52%||265,846||Clinton district by about 5 points. Should be easy to defend, but Ruben won a narrow 4 point victory -- pretty much right at the party registration difference. Also the 2 last incumbents LOST re-election in this district -- which is anomalous. 90% of the reps win re-election easily. So, this is a district to watch and defend.||Defend|
|New Hampshire 1||R+1||Shea Porter, Carol (D)||44.3% D||365,572||One of the most competitive congressional districts. Battles with Frank Guinta, who beats her every other term; she won at 44.3% to 42.99% against Guinta and 3 Independent candidates in 2016; but in 2014 he beat her 51.71% to her 48.11%; beginning in 2006 ,she served 2 consecutive terms; then began the alternating pattern in 2011;||Defend|
|New Jersey 5||R+4||Gottheimer, Josh (D)||51.11||337,701||Went for Trump by 1 point. So, our guy is out performing the registration numbers; and also 2016 numbers. We have to keep this seat Blue… DEFEND!!||Defend|
|New York 1||R+2||Zeldin, Lee (R)||55.2% R||323,777||2 terms; defeated dem Anna Throne-Holst with 55.19% votes to her 44.81%; he defeated dem incumbent Bishop, 54% to 45%; endorsed Donald Trump as the Republican presidential nominee; voted for the Defund Planned Parenthood Act of 2015; never sponsored legislation to protect the environment per Sierra Club of Long Island and the League of Conservation Voters; "FiveThirtyEight gives Zeldin an 100% Trump Score meaning that he has always voted with President Trump's position."||Strong Flip!|
|New York 19||D+1||Faso, John (R)||41.80%||322,571||The district, like other upstate New York districts, went for Obama in 2008 and 2012; but flipped to Trump (by 6 points) in 2016. This is definitely a seat to target. However, there will likely be some buyer's remorse about Trump; and Faso has to be tied to that without mercy. Not an easy seat to flip -- it has been sending Republicans to Congress last few times. But, it has to be on the list of flippable for us.||Strong Flip!|
|New York 21||EVEN||Stefanik, Elise (R)||52.87%||288,611||The district has a dead even registration picture -- both parties are equal, and neither has a built in advantage. Moreover, this is a district that Obama won by 5 and 6 points in 2008 and 2012 respectively. Yet, it went for Trump 54 - 40. This is EXACTLY the kind of district where Democrats CANNOT let a Republican win. Trump disillusion and other factors must be used to target the incumbent. Elise is the youngest woman to be elected to Congress (32) in 2014 -- she is a darling of the right wing, and WAY TOO CONSERVATIVE for this district. Democratic opponents need to be much stronger to take her on -- hopefully, the grassroots can get fired up and nominate someone to take Elise Stefanik down.||Strong Flip!|
|New York 22||R+3||Tenney, Claudia (R)||43.72%||296,086||District is in Central New York; generally republican; but very convertible even if there is a small Blue Wave in 2018 -- obviously we should shoot for Blue Tsunami;; They voted for Trump 55-39 -- mostly white population being the biggest reason; and also no big urban areas. But, they also went for Kerry / Obama. Go figure. So, gettable if we view Trump vote as outlier. Claudia is a lawyer, well-qualified for this office; known in the community; and the Tenney name is locally famous (her father was a Supreme Court judge for New York). She is media savvy -- and has a radio career. She got in once Richard Hanna (popular Democrat retired in 2016). A good candidate might be able to turn this distrct back to blue. The Trump margin is large compared to the R+3 -- so we need to tie Claudia to Trump and scrutinize and publicize her votes on the Trumpian agenda.||Flip!|
|New York 23||R+3||Reed, Tom (R)||46.24%||296,198||Typical of upstate New York, this went for Obama by a narrow percentage in 2008, flipped to Romney a bit in 2012; and lurched 15 points towards Trump in 2016… The district has more Republicans, but not by much. Reed has been in the office since the 2010 Republican wave. This is a district to watch in case there is an anti-Trump backlash -- many of our people went to Trump because of Clinton, perhaps. Again, the opponent is critical.||Weak Flip!|
|New York 24||D+5||Katko, John (R)||57.94%||315,429||This district went overwhelmingly for Obama (14 and 16 points in 2008 and 2012); and for Clinton by 3 points in 2016. Also, this is a D + 6 district. Colleen Deacon is the candidate that lost to John Katko, and lost big. Perhaps she is not the right opponent. Katko has to be tied to Trump in a way that brings him down. Very doable.||Strong Flip!|
|New York 25||D+7||Slaughter, Louise (D)||50.14%||336,386||This should not be on this list. Solidly Cinton and Obama district. It has been trending Democratic, and Louise has been there for 3 terms.|
|New York 3||EVEN||Suozzi, Thomas (D)||48.83%||343,589||This seat has to be defended. It went for Hillary 52-46, and for Obama by similar margins. But, it is a close race.||Defend|
|Pennsylvania 16||R+4||Smucker, Lloyd (R)||53.76||313,773||Pennsylvania does not permit early voting or no-excuse absentee voting. Pennsylvania implemented an online voter registration system in August 2015. Since Pennsylvania's voter ID law was struck down in 2014, voters are generally not required to present identification at the polls (first-time voters may be required to present identification when they first vote).||Flip!|
|Pennsylvania 6||R+2||Ryan Costello (R)||57.24||362,469||Pennsylvania does not permit early voting or no-excuse absentee voting. Pennsylvania implemented an online voter registration system in August 2015. Since Pennsylvania's voter ID law was struck down in 2014, voters are generally not required to present identification at the polls (first-time voters may be required to present identification when they first vote).||Flip! (if this is a wave election)|
|Pennsylvania 8||R+1||Fitzpatrick, Brian (R)||54.43||38,081||His brother Mike was in the seat for a while. He was replaced by Patrick Murphy (an Iraq war vet); but Brian has been winning since then. This district should be a target for Democrats. We need to track the Trump numbers -- since Trump won Pennsylvania by a point.||Flip!|
|Texas 23||R+3||Hurd, William (R)||48.3||228,965||Currently held by Republican Will Hurd. Re-election is in jeopardy because he votes on reckless house Republican policies. Not concerned with South West Texan constituents. So, he has become vulnerable. Some challenges because this is a Republican district. 2016 Trump numbers were difficult deal with.||Flip|
|Utah 4||R+16||Love, Mia (R)||53.8% R||274,569||Two consecutive terms; district created by 2012 from reapportionments. Love was described as a Tea Party conservative in 2012. Per Washington Post 2015 article, "Love's rhetoric from 2012 to 2014 changed a bit, even as her policy positions remained fairly constant" and noted that Love had "angered some conservatives when she questioned the tea party driven government shutdown in 2013 over Obamacare." A blogger for libertarian-leaning magazine Reason described her as a "Trojan horse libertarian".||Potential Flip!|
|Virginia 10||R+2||Comstock, Barbara (R)||52.69%||400,083||Virginia permits online voter registration. Virginia does not, however, allow no-excuse absentee voting or early voting. Every voter in Virginia must present identification at the polls or else cast a provisional ballot. Valid identification includes the following: Virginia voter registration card; Virginia driver's license; military ID; any federal, state, or local government-issued ID; employer-issued photo ID card; concealed handgun permit; student ID from any higher education institution in Virginia; or a current utility bill, bank statement, paycheck, or government check indicating the name and address of the voter. The identification must be current or expired only within the last year.||Flip|
|Virginia 4||D+8||McEachin, Donald (D)||57.73%||346,656|
|Virginia 5||R+5||Garrett, Tom (R)||58.24%||356,756||This seat has been mostly Republican (including during the Obama years, when VA swung towards Democrats). This will be a tough get unless this turns into a massive wave. Garrett is really conservative, and if Trump becomes the anvil around the Republicans in 2018, he might become vulnerable.|
|Wisconsin 8||R+2||Gallagher, Mike (R)||62.65||363,280||This was an Obama district in 2008 by 2 points; then went to Romney by a few points; and now to Trump by 17 POINTS! Mike Gallagher is a rookie and, if we see some regrets about Trump, that is how we have to build the case against Gallagher. Grassroots support and recruitment of a good candidate to take on Gallagher is equally important. The Democrats have been underperforming their registration split in this district for years. It is not clear why this. These races should be closer. Early start on recruiting a good candidate to take on Gallagher is key it appears.||Flip!|