In the US Senate, Republicans now have:
To FLIP the Senate in November 2018, Democrats need to NET a total 3 seats, meaning they will need to win 3 more seats than they lose. Now, having to gain a total of 3 seats does not sound like that daunting a target. Unfortunately, gaining even the small net of 3 seats will be extremely hard to accomplish in 2018 simply because of Mathematics!
To reiterate, Democrats would be doing really, really well just to keep the Republicans current advantage of 2 from increasing any further.
US Senate Analysis
State | 2014 PVI | Incumbent | 2012 Result | Cook | Roth. | Our comments | Finding |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona | R+7 | Flake, Jeff (R) | 49% R | Lean R | Likely R | Flake is actually fairly moderate for a Republican; but that is really not saying much these days. He always SOUNDS reasonable, but VOTES unreasonably. He is too much of a Trumpie, but has a smooth style that allows him to slide away from accountability. Sorta like his senior colleague: McCain. He will be a tough out, but he is gettable. He will be challenged from the right in a primary. His numbers are low because AZ always has 3rd party candidates (like Libertarians) taking votes from Republicans. Also, we need a good candidate to have a shot at this seat. | Flip |
California | D+9 | Feinstein, Dianne (D) | 63% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe | |
Connecticut | D+7 | Murphy, Chris (D) | 55% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe | |
Delaware | D+8 | Carper, Tom (D) | 66% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe | |
Florida | R+2 | Nelson, Bill (D) | 55% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Bill Nelson always seems to have close races for Senator, but is a fairly nondescript, safe candidate who has Florida credibility as a known brand. We cannot let this seat fall to the Republicans through carelessness. | Safe |
Hawaii | D+20 | Hirono, Mazie (D) | 63% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe | |
Indiana | R+5 | Donnelly, Joe (D) | 50% D | Lean D | Tossup | Joe Donnelly won this race purely through the incompetence of his Republican opponent -- Richard Mourdock. Yes, the man who became famous as the "legitimate rape" guy. Once Mourdock decided to inflict this wound on his own political prospects, Donelly was able to sneak through. This will be a very difficult seat to defend. And, defend it we must or this race could easily go to the Republicans, regardless of the candidate they run. | Defend |
Maine | D+6 | King, Angus (I) | 53% I | Lean D | Safe D | Maine is a crazy state, but Angus is well liked. He is independent but caucuses with the Democrats. We should make sure there is no threat to him. | Defend |
Maryland | D+10 | Cardin, Ben (D) | 55% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe | |
Massachusetts | D+10 | Warren, Elizabeth (D) | 54% D | Safe D | Safe D | The Republicans would love to overthrow her because she does get under their collective skin. But, Elizabeth should be able to win. Republicans are targeting her in a big way. | Safe |
Michigan | D+4 | Stabenow, Debbie (D) | 59% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe | |
Minnesota | D+2 | Klobuchar, Amy (D) | 65% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe | |
Mississippi | R+9 | Wicker, Roger (R) | 57% R | Safe R | Safe R | No way! | |
Missouri | R+5 | McCaskill, Claire (D) | 55% D | Lean D | Tossup | Claire won comfortably in her last race because a) she is locally popular, and b) her Republican opponent was a rightwing nut-case who was fond of advertising it (yes, the "legitimate rape" guy). Republicans will be gunning for her. Trump won Missouri handily. So, she will have a very tough time. But, she is a skilled politician who knows that state. We have to support her in every way possible. | Defend |
Montana | R+7 | Tester, Jon (D) | 49% D | Likely D | Tilt D | Short take: Tester is a strong campaigner who is not in too much danger given the weak Republican field. Candidate: Jon Tester is a moderate Democrat; says he will work with Trump but so far reliably voted against him. He's an accomplished campaigner. Opponents: Former Governor Marc Racicot likely running, Ryan Zinke was a candidate and now out of the race bc nominated as Secretary of Interior. Contacted: Tester's campaign. | Defend |
Nebraska | R+12 | Fisher, Deb (R) | 56% R | Safe R | Safe R | No way! | |
Nevada | D+2 | Heller, Dean (R) | 46% R | Lean R | Lean R | Current: Dean Heller says he's a centrist but "will work with Trump". Along with Cory Gardner in CO, Heller is the only Senator in a blue state that has voted with Trump 100% of the time so far. Candidates: No one has formally entered. Most exciting might be NV-4 congress rep Ruben Kihuen. An interesting round-up of potential candidates is here. Contacted: Nevada Dems and Clark County Dems | Flip! |
New Jersey | D+6 | Menendez, Bob (D) | 59% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe | |
New Mexico | D+4 | Heinrich, Martin (D) | 51% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe | |
New York | D+11 | Gillibrand, Kirsten (D) | 72% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe | |
North Dakota | R+10 | Heitkamp, Heidi (D) | 50% D | Likely D | Tossup | Short take: Very challenging race for Dems, but a noble candidate - if we can support, let's do it. Candidate: Reliably liberal despite her political climate, and no long career to insulate her from the ND context. In 2012, she won reelection by just under 3,000 votes. Opponents: US Representative Kevin Cramer and State Rep. and 2016 candidate for Governor Rick Becker are probably the strongest | Defend |
Ohio | R+1 | Brown, Sherrod (D) | 51% D | Lean D | Lean D | Sherrod is another of those old-school, union-machine, working class champion Democrats who always pulls out close elections. Ohio was one of the states that tilted big time for Trump. We have to make sure that this tilt does not take out Sherrod. We have to watch this campaign carefully and make sure Sherrod does not lose. Repuiblicans will come after him because he is a relentless progressive. | Defend |
Pennsylvania | D+1 | Casey, Bob (D) | 54% D | Likely D | Lean D | Bob is a reliable progressive Democrat on almost all issues except abortion, where, as a Catholic, he takes a different position than the national party. He is widely admired as a guy who is close to constituents, and works to get things done for them in Washington. Statewide races in PA are always close, and, of course, hate to remind you, Trump won there for a variety of reasons. Bob will be cautious and methodical and will likely win. But, we CANNOT afford to lose his seat. | Defend |
Rhode Island | D+11 | Whitehouse, Sheldon (D) | 64% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe | |
Tennessee | R+12 | Corker, Bob (R) | 65% R | Safe R | Safe R | No way! | |
Texas | R+10 | Cruz, Ted (R) | 57% R | Safe R | Safe R | Oh, how sweet it would be to knock Ted Cruz from his perch on this seat. It looks like he will be opposed by Julian Castro. And, intriguingly, a recent poll showed Castro ahead by a couple of points. This one would be a "nice to have" -- but while Texas is turning purple, it is not yet blue enough to flip this one. But, one can dream, right? | Nice to Flip! |
Utah | R+22 | Orrin Hatch (R) | 65% R | Safe R | Safe R | No way! | |
Vermont | D+16 | Sanders, Bernie (I) | 71% I | Safe D | Safe D | Safe | |
Virginia | Even | Kaine, Tim (D) | 53% D | Likely D | Likely D | Tim Keane is locally almost unassailable and beloved, although the state is very even in its registration distribution. | Safe |
Washington | D+5 | Cantwell, Maria (D) | 61% D | Safe D | Safe D | This will not be a hard seat for Maria Cantwell to hold on to. She is popular, and has done a good job in a blue state. | Safe |
West Virginia | R+13 | Joe Manchin (D) | 61% D | Likely D | Tossup | Defend | |
Wisconsin | D+2 | Tammy Baldwin (D) | 51% D | Likely D | Tilt D | Tammy's win was narrow -- she is one of the openly lesbian politicians in Wisconsin; and she is well liked. Wisconsin races are always very close. Hard to believe they did not elect Feingold -- he is a gem of a principled politician. Clinton lost Wisonsin by a sliver for a variety of reasons that I would rather not talk about 🙁 ... But, Tammy should hold her seat, especially as revulsion / buyers' remorse settles in the state. Wisconsin has lots of local progressive infrastructure. We should be able to plug in and see how we can help. WISCONSIN IS THE CENTER OF VOTER SUPPRESSION ; Democratic turnout was 200,000 below in the last election... Trump won by 27,000. BTW, 33,000 Bernie people wrote in HIS name. Crazy.... http://isthmus.com/opinion/opinion/voter-suppression-in-wisconsin-in-2016-election/ ==> PHOTO ID is a problem in areas like Milwaukee (Democratic strongholds). Union participation is down. State has a liberal history, but that has changed on the ground quite a bit. Trump is causing huge problems for those interested in running against Tammy: http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/2/17/1634577/-Morning-Digest-Sean-Duffy-won-t-challenge-Tammy-Baldwin-in-Wisconsin-but-many-others-eye-the-race | Defend |
Wyoming | R+22 | John Barrasso (R) | 76% R | Safe R | Safe R | No way! |